探寻塔里木河源头 大河源头科考系列行动（下）

Growth moderated sharply in 2023 on the back of tight macroeconomic policies and slowing global growth. However, economic growth rebounded in the first semester of 2024. A tight monetary policy stance has contributed to the decline in headline inflation from its peak of 13.3% in March 2023 to 6.1% in August 2024. Domestic demand started to level off in late 2022, with weak investment adding to sluggish growth in 2023, although investment began increasing in the second quarter of 2024. The labour market has been resilient, with robust job creation, declining unemployment and reduced informality rates, but has slightly deteriorated recently.

The economy is expected to undergo another year of modest growth, at 1.8% in 2024, before picking up by 2.8% in 2025 (Table?1). Private consumption will remain solid supported by disinflation, monetary policy easing and significant remittances. Investment will rebound as financial conditions gradually ease but will remain weak. Exports will grow moderately. Inflation is projected to gradually converge to the 3% target by end of 2025. Downside risks persist and include greater global and local uncertainty, weather anomalies, persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions. The financial sector remains resilient with well-capitalised banks and large liquidity buffers.

Consolidation efforts reduced gross public debt to 57% of GDP in 2023 from pandemic highs of 65%, but borrowing costs have increased since Colombia lost its investment grade in 2021. Continued fiscal prudence is needed for compliance with the fiscal rule and debt sustainability. To finance higher post-pandemic spending and the government’s ambitious social and productive transformation agenda, reforms to raise tax revenues and spending efficiency are required.

The government’s medium term fiscal plans aim for gradual and prudent fiscal consolidation. The government is committed to adhering to the fiscal rule, even if it requires ad-hoc spending cuts that could harm public investment and long-term growth. Compliance with the current fiscal rule and avoiding cuts in public investment could be achieved by gradually phasing out diesel subsidies, as commendably done with petrol subsidies in 2023, distortive and ill-targeted public utilities subsidies and improving the targeting of social spending.

Colombia has implemented 21 tax reforms in the last two decades, but tax revenues remain low (Figure?2). The 2022 tax reform increased tax revenues and progressivity but frequent piecemeal reforms have heightened uncertainty and complexity. A comprehensive, gradual, well-sequenced and well communicated tax reform is needed, that would rebalance the tax burden from corporate to personal income, reduce tax expenditures, simplify the tax system, and tackle tax evasion. Such a reform would not only increase revenues but also stimulate investment and promote progressivity in the tax system. Enhancing the tax administration to combat tax evasion is also needed. Raising spending efficiency will require better targeting social spending and reducing large budget rigidities.

Colombia faces large and persistent regional disparities in incomes and productivity (Figure?3) alongside stagnant productivity. The global energy transition and shifting global trade patterns provide opportunities for regional development and growth; as does the Peace Agreement, which should receive sufficient resources for implementation.

The quality of transport infrastructure is poor, resulting in high transport costs and limited regional integration. Infrastructure projects should prioritise interconnectivity of ports, river, rail and road transport, and improvements in the rural road network to connect cities to their rural hinterland.

There are large regional differences in the business environment holding back productivity. Expanding one-stop shops that integrate national and subnational procedures and encouraging greater take-up of the simplified tax regime would improve the business environment. Innovation and technology upgrade policies could better target businesses in lagging regions.

Greater fiscal and administrative capacity of subnational governments could improve infrastructure and services. In line with the findings of Colombia’s decentralisation commission, this would require strengthening fiscal equalisation mechanisms and improving direct revenue generation. Building administrative capacity should coincide with delegation of authority, clarifying spending responsibilities, and improving intergovernmental coordination. Continuing the fight against corruption would strengthen the state capacity especially in poor and peripheral area.

Colombia ranks among the OECD's most unequal countries, facing high poverty, driven by high informality, low access to high-quality education, and gender gaps in the labour market. The government has an ambitious and broad social reform agenda that will help to reduce inequalities and alleviate poverty. Further measures are, however, needed to address entrenched disparities and tackle informality.

Reducing informality in Colombia, where around 56% of workers hold informal jobs without access to employment protection or social security benefits, remains a challenge (Figure?4). A comprehensive strategy is needed to tackle informality. This should include reducing social security contributions for lower-income workers that sustain high informality, particularly among the most vulnerable. Enhancing labour law enforcement and tax compliance, lowering costs for formal firm creation, reviewing the minimum wage to achieve a more formal-job-friendly level and skill development would all reduce informality.

Female labour participation is low, and many women work informally. Expanding access to early childhood education, especially in rural and vulnerable regions, would boost both children's prospects and their mothers' engagement in the formal labour force. Increasing elderly care services would also boost female labour force participation.

Low levels of learning are at the core of persistent inequalities, and the pandemic has exacerbated this challenge. Many students leave school early with low skills, particularly those from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds, requiring tailored support for students at risk of falling behind. Upper-secondary VET programmes can teach locally relevant skills and are often the only educational option at this level in rural areas.

Colombia is confronting three critical climate transitions. First, it aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Second, it needs to strengthen climate resilience through effective adaptation measures. Third, with the global decline in oil and coal demand, Colombia needs to transform its economy and diversify its production and exports and take advantage of its vast renewable energy potential, mineral resources, and rich biodiversity to drive growth, create jobs, and reduce poverty.

To combat climate change, Colombia has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Meeting emission targets will depend largely on further progress in combating deforestation, a key source of emissions. This will require better enforcement of the law and coordination efforts across administrations to combat illegal deforestation. The government's Just Energy Transition roadmap will reduce emissions, but it may fall short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 (Figure?5). Speeding up the generation of renewable energy generation, alongside developing green financial instruments, a stable regulatory framework and more ambitious price signals for abatement are necessary.

Increased investments in adaptation are crucial to boost resilience. Higher coordination and monitoring of climate adaptation measures at all government levels, coupled with regular updates of risk assessments to inform subnational planning, are needed to overcome obstacles in adaptation project implementation. Efforts are needed to expand early warning systems and enhance insurance schemes to manage climate risks effectively, particularly in the agricultural sector.

Achieving emission reduction also offers opportunities. To manage risks and capitalise on the transition, Colombia must diversify its exports away from oil and coal and further boost renewable energy. It should also prioritise investment in critical minerals and biodiversity conservation and provide policy support to reintegrate displaced workers into the labour market.